Market Medley

The Indian bond market is sending shockwaves through the investment community. The 10-year government bond yield, a critical benchmark for the economy, has surged to a multi-year high of 6.60%. This level was unexpected by many, including DSP Investment Managers, who did not foresee yields breaking above 6.40%. For income-seeking investors, a near 7% return on sovereign debt is instinctively attractive. But is it a good buy? The answer is nuanced: while the yield is compelling, the path to realizing gains will be volatile, requiring a strategic and patient approach.

 On August 7, 2025, the United States imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, with an additional 25% penalty set for August 27. This move places India among the most heavily tariffed US trade partners, alongside Brazil. While trade talks between the two nations are ongoing and may lead to a reduction, the current rates create significant headwinds for Indian exporters.

In its latest policy review, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% and maintained a ‘neutral’ policy stance, diverging from divided market expectations. The central bank cited resilient domestic growth and anticipated inflationary pressures as reasons for its pause. Despite the current benign inflation, the RBI expects Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge above 4% later in the year, driven partly by a low base. Still, it revised its FY26 inflation forecast downward to 3.1% from 3.7%. While the RBI retained its FY26 GDP growth projection at 6.5%, Nuvama Research expressed scepticism, pointing to weak domestic demand, subdued corporate earnings, and sluggish household consumption. These trends, it noted, could constrain tax collections and government spending. Looking ahead, Market Medley believes the case for further rate cuts remains strong, especially amid global uncertainties and muted pricing power. However, any easing may depend on when the US Federa...

  1. Overview Effective August 1, 2025, the United States has announced a 25% tariff on imports from India—higher than expected and comparable to those imposed on South Korea, though lower than those on China and Bangladesh. The move comes amid broader US efforts to shrink its trade deficit and curb reliance on foreign goods.

 As global economic dynamics evolve, silver is emerging as a compelling investment opportunity, driven by both macroeconomic and sector-specific factors. In 2025, silver has demonstrated strong performance, rallying to approximately $38/oz , marking a 25% year-to-date gain , largely fueled by investment demand and favorable central bank policies.

  I n a striking case of market manipulation, global trading giant Jane Street allegedly orchestrated a sophisticated strategy to profit from the Indian derivatives market, likened by experts to a "rigged IPL match." Through Indian-linked entities, the firm drove up Bank Nifty stock prices on expiry Thursdays—only to later dump them, causing sharp market falls and reaping huge gains from pre-purchased Put Options.