Normal monsoons with strong sowing growth

 FY2025 monsoon: monsoon remains normal

–       Till July 12, cumulative rainfall was 2.8% below long-term average while weekly rainfall was 5.6% below long-term average. On a cumulative basis, rainfall was normal in southern India, north-west India, and east and north-east India, and below normal in central India (slide 3). Out of the 36 sub-divisions, till date, 11 have received deficient rainfall, 18 have received normal rainfall, and seven have received excess rainfall 

Retail food price: vegetables prices increasing

–       Average weekly prices increased for vegetables and pulses while it declined for cereals and oilseeds in the week-ending July 11. Price inflation was high for cereals and pulses while vegetables have a favorable base effect from last year’s levels (slides 5-6). Compared to last week, in the week-ending July 11, cereals prices fell 1.1% (3.8% higher over same week last year), pulses prices increased 0.4% (15% higher over same week last year), vegetables prices increased 13.9% (5% lower over same week last year), oil prices fell 1% (3.4% lower over same week last year). We note this is based on Department of Consumer Affairs’ prices for select products and not the official inflation data.

Sowing status: higher than last year’s levels

–       As of July 8, the total kharif acreage was 14.1% higher than the same period last year. Compared to same period last year, rice sowing was 19.4% higher at 6 mn hectares. Oilseeds acreage was 55% higher at 8 mn hectares while pulses acreage at 3.7 mn hectares was 55% higher than last year. Coarse cereal acreage was 29% lower at 5.8 mn hectares. Sugarcane acreage was 2.6% higher at 5.7 mn hectares, and cotton acreage was 29% higher at 8.1 mn hectares 

Reservoir levels: remains deficient

–       Basin-wise reservoir levels remained deficient. Among major river basins, Krishna (west and south), Tapi (central and west), and West flowing southern rivers were surplus. Cauvery (south), Ganga (north and east), Godavari (west and south), Indus (north India), Mahanadi (central and east), and Narmada (central and west) were deficient. Overall basins and reservoirs levels were around 11% below long-term average for week-ending July 11 (slide 7).